Showing posts with label Arsenal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Arsenal. Show all posts

The 20th Premier League Season. An Analysis

In what has been billed one of the best seasons ever, it is important to reflect that it has been perhaps one of the most entertaining because it has been one of the worst in terms of quality. Defending at times appeared to go out the window, yet it gave us scorelines from years gone by. Many questions were asked of owners and managers, many transfers questioned and new stars were made. 


The last day of the season was by far the best finish in Premier League history and for that this 20th season will be remembered fondly. A fifth name on the trophy has been marked and it may be the dawn of a new era in the Premier League. This is my analysis of all the sides this season, what they did, or not and what the future holds for them for next year.






1st, Manchester City

In what was one of the most dramatic endings to a Premier League season for a long time,  Man City have put their names on the trophy as only the fifth side in Premier League history to do so. Considering that the title was won in the last minute of the season, it seems odd to say that it was City’s to lose throughout the campaign. Yet they almost did it, and not just yesterday, but in their away from with losses against Sunderland, Everton, Swansea and Arsenal all but seemingly throwing away the league. When 8 points behind  United it seemed over, and although there was talk of the “project” not factoring in a title win so soon, it would have been seen as a capitulation and a sign of the mental block that City had been associated with. 


As it was, 6 wins to finish the season did the trick, importantly the defeat to United at home. With the money spent it would seem obvious that the title was “won”, however this side has come from nowhere to get in the position it is now. With a very limited history, investment was the only way City would be able to compete. With the acquisition of Aguero this season, City have arguably the best keeper, defender (Kompany), midfielder (Yaya) and forward (Aguero) in the league. What this title win did, and importantly the manner of it, was show City that in those moments when all seems lost, can pull something out like that. If they had won 6-0, the win would not have given them as much belief as what happened Sunday. This is not good for those around them, the hardest one is the first and the coming decade may see a genuine force ignite on world football. 


As for Mancini, by his own actions he knew his job depended on that result and the title, at 2-1 it all seemed over, yet he has given himself another season, I say this because his record in the Champions League is scratchy at best and with City’s ambitions, the next step is that tournament. With a relatively poor and naive showing in Europe this year, it is vital that the title was won. Expect players to leave this year, notably Tevez & Balotelli whose suitors could include Champions League qualifiers PSG and Malaga. It may be that Falcao is looked at to come in up top, along with a world class defensive midfielder of the ilk of Gokhan Inler or Arturo Vidal. A key acquisition will be a central defender, losing Jerome Boateng was not as costly as it could have been as City were lucky with injuries compared to their rivals. Yet clearly without Kompany, this side looked vulnerable. Expect one or two new players in defence in order to make it stronger. 


Exciting times ahead for City, for many fans there is anger regarding their investment, yet the truth is, if you want the best you spend the best. City are the only side in the league that can be regarded as world class. Their title win is much deserved due to their performances this season.

2nd  Manchester United


So close! As the final whistle went at the Stadium of Light it appeared that Ferguson had somehow pulled off another last gasp snatch of the title. A season where United seemed out of it, only to come back and be 8 points clear, appeared to say everything about this club and their manager. Quite simply, don’t write them off. However, in a very un-United fashion, 5 points dropped to Wigan and Everton in the run in effectively cost United the title. They should never have been waiting on City for their result, yet they should also have never been in that situation anyway. Comparing the two sides, the quality and the investment, would put City very much in front. The fact it came down to goal difference indicates that United did excellently considering the financial might of their neighbours. Before yesterday United had what City didn’t, the knowledge of getting over the line. For 30 minutes it appeared City had choked, and in all honesty they did. However, that goal in the 94th minute will be a sign to Ferguson that this team and their manager are made of tough stuff and that he has a genuine battle on his hands. 


The key now is, what will United do to compete? Since Ronaldo and Tevez left investment has been minimal and the quality of players brought in has been average for a team of United’s calibre. They are one of the greatest sides in the world, yet their squad does not reflect that. The absence of Vidic was a major blow and I wonder how well City would have done if Kompany had been out, I doubt we would be calling them Champions. Yet Ferguson has put his trust in the potential of youth; De Gea, Jones, Smalling, the Da Silva’s and Welbeck have been almost ever presents this season, yet questions still remain for all these players. I am sure they will improve and may be the new generation of United, yet Rooney was right, the quality of this side is not good enough. Rooney, Vidic, Carrick and Valencia are only top quality players in the side now, the team has aged and needs evolving. This summer is vital for United if they wish to stay close to City. The question is, will the Glazers give Ferguson the money and wages to bring in proven talent? Until this happens, I can only see the gap between United and City getting larger.

3rd Arsenal

If I was told this side would finish third after seven games I would have laughed very hard. However, the fact they have says more about the quality of the sides in the league than Arsenal themselves. The chaos of last summer came into the season, poor decisions, misplaced trust and a lack of any plan meant that Arsenal were quite a shambles. Whereas last season they were in for a chance to win the league, this season they have scraped third and finish 19 points behind the top. Each season they get further behind, it must be worrying for the fans. 


A key characteristic of Arsenal is their lack of mental strength and they almost threw away third these past weeks as much as they had done well to earn it. Credit must also go to the capitulation of their neighbours yet Wenger should be both pleased and distressed by this season. Player of the season Robin Van Persie has managed to keep fit and has shown the world he is one of the best forwards in football today. Yet, how likely he will stay at Arsenal is essential for their future. He may have enough love for London and his family to stay, yet for solely footballing reasons, he should go. Arsenal have an average side which needs major investment, the choice of Wenger and the board was to invest in the stadium and hope Wenger can perform miracles to keep Arsenal competitive. He did, and quite a remarkable achievement it has been. 


Yet, there is now a top 6/7 which will be all vying for a shot at top four. Wenger is very lucky to have finished in the top four and he has kept the wolves from the door again. Yet if Arsenal don’t improve the squad, in defence, full back, defensive mid and up front then don’t expect to see Arsenal in the top four next season. For me, if Arsenal do want to progress, it may mean Wenger leaving. Defensively they are a shambles still, 49 goals conceded is not title winning, perhaps Bould can improve on Rice’s performance, yet this is a side which is nowhere near winning anything.


4th Tottenham


The award for greatest capitulation goes to Spurs. Talk of title chasers seemed to have legs and the game at the Etihad could have been a chance for Spurs to get close to the top. However, how moments change seasons and no sooner was Defoe missing a chance on the line, Balotelli was slotting home a 92nd minute penalty and getting the three points. The following weeks changed their season when Capello left and Redknapp was the “clear” choice of his replacement. To say that affected the team is an understatement and although an impressive 5-0 win over Newcastle appeared to show Spurs were serious, the resulting six points from eighteen, including a monumental 5-2 loss to Arsenal, appeared to show that the rumours had taken it’s effect and a season which seemed title chasing, ended in a fourth place finish, which now rests on the final in Munich to see if Champions League football will take place next season. 


As much as the England job may have affected the team, Redknapp still has questions to answer over his incessant use of the same side for the majority of the season, where his large and strong squad is rarely rotated well enough for the rigours of the Premier League. His use of Bale in central areas affected the flow and effectiveness of the player and the team and perhaps his own desire to have Bale be more than a winger was proven wrong. The situation last summer regarding Modric was deemed by many to be a masterstroke by Levy in not accepting a £40 million bid from Chelsea, yet I am sure that money would have been welcomed by Redknapp who would have preferred to have brought in a replacement and a striker who actually wanted to be at White Hart Lane, over a player whose head had clearly being turned. I doubt they will get that offer this summer yet may accept that he wants to go this summer; with United and Chelsea sure to be enquiring. 


As for the future of this side, with only £5 million spent last summer Spurs have done very well, yet more is needed this summer to maintain their position. With Defoe talking of leaving and Adebayor unsure of his situation, a striker is a necessity. Could they tempt a Falcao or a Huntelaar or are these targets fantasy instead of reality? Is Loic Remy a good prospect? Ultimately a disappointing season, for most of it Spurs played good football and entertained, yet they fell away when it mattered, however if Bayern come through this weekend, then at least Spurs achieved what they intended to.


5th Newcastle


For many the team of the year. In my opinion there is another who deserve that accolade, yet Newcastle have been excellent this season. With the animosity that came from the fans when Pardew first arrived in the autumn of 2010, it seemed inconceivable that Newcastle could be challenging for Champions League football this season. However, they have done and although not achieving that Holy Grail, fifth place is a remarkable achievement. 


The reason people say team of the year is because for many the expected relegation for the Toon. What a ridiculous statement. This was based on the losses of Barton, Carroll and Nolan and the replacements of Cabaye and Ba. This is what makes me laugh about the English media, they assume that when you lose the “English desire” then you can’t compete. Yet what Newcastle did was bring in a midfielder who played an important role in winning Lille the French league the year before. Surely that’s a step up? Playing alongside Tiote, a title winner for Twente in Holland too would appear to show an improvement, not a regression. And the season has shown that this is correct. Ridding yourself of Barton was the best decision made by Ashley and Newcastle have been a unified team this season. 


Pardew deserves much credit for bringing this group together, for improving the performances of Coloccini, Perch and Ben Arfa in particular. Playing Jonas in a def mid position has been a great tactical decision and the scouting network of Newcastle must be commended for the purchases made in the past 18 months. Ashley received much derision from the Newcastle fans and though much of it justified, he has brought them around as the club has improved on the pitch and off it. I cannot see Newcastle suffering a drop next season, although Graham Carr needs to be busy this summer as many players at Newcastle will be on many top sides radar this summer.


6th Chelsea


Along with Liverpool perhaps the most fascinating of clubs solely based on their disastrous season. Amazingly Chelsea are FA Cup winners and have the chance to win the Champions League this weekend. Quite remarkable considering the turmoil which has surrounded the club. Ancelotti was sacked at the end of last season as he didn’t win a trophy, even though the year before he had won the double. Abramovich’s desire for world domination often forgets to account for periods of transition and stability. It was decided that a young, successful and ambitious man was needed for the role of taking Chelsea from the 00’s to the 10’s and the role was given to the heir apparent to Mourinho, Andre Villa-Boas. A staggering £13 million was spent to pry him away from Porto and many believed that Chelsea were destined for much success. 


However, all was not as bright as it seemed for the “Group one” who did all he could to cut a divide between the players and himself. His handling of certain players and his mishandling of the press, meant that he was given a tough time, which if results are going well, can be excused. Yet the “Barcelona” way was not working for Chelsea and Villas-Boas was cut an isolated figure, looking deft of ideas and friends. His talk of the long term project forgot about the need for short term success and as the league became unattainable and the Champions League campaign almost over, he was deemed surplus. 


Amazingly, yet not surprisingly, the team started to win, confidence was reborn and Chelsea appeared their old self. Ironically the team was galvanised by the “Old Guard” of Terry, Lampard and Drogba yet notable mentions of the season goes to Ramires and Mata. Di Matteo has done a astounding job in his time as caretaker, the question remains whether he is the right man for the future of the club, yet he has clearly grown into his role as manager and with any job, success instils confidence. Can Chelsea overcome Bayern this weekend and put Di Matteo in the history books? Who knows. Yet if Chelsea do wish to challenge for the title again then Roman needs to understand that money is not everything, stability is as important. Does the side need evolving, yes, yet is the new philosophy of players like De Bruyne and Marin going to be able to emulate the power and strength of the last decade? Drogba may well leave this summer, can Lukaku be his replacement? What is important is that investment is made in the centre of the pitch, where Chelsea used to be so strong, they have lost the force they had. I believe Di Matteo would be ne

7th Everton


David Moyes spoke of a man who was disappointed with his achievements this season, 7th place in front of Liverpool had many Evertonians jumping for joy. Yet what they have in this man is a winner, who unfortunately has not won anything in his decade at the club. That being said, he has exceeded expectations relative to the money spent season on season. The outlay of money from Everton is that of a side in the lower regions of the league, so to finish consistently in these places is remarkable. Yet the fans protests are not wrong, if Everton want to keep their manager and want to push on further, then serious investment is needed. 


Kenwright has received much derision from the fans this season as in their belief, he is holding the club back. He says he is waiting for the right buyer and when looking at Blackburn, Portsmouth and even Villa, foreign ownership can be dangerous. However, Everton need to address their early season form in order to push on further, too many slow starts contribute to a game of catch up which is not conducive to a successful campaign. The key acquisitions of Jelavic and Peinnar were vital in the second half of the season, both players being key to this 7th place finish. 


As for next season, much was said of young Ross Barkley who has not the influence that Rooney did, yet expect more next season. As for Rodwell, if a bid of £10m+ comes in then Everton should accept it, that money could be used on bringing back Peinnar and investing in the team. They are a good, stable side, and with a full season of Jelavic expect more goals, yet the fans are right, in order to progress more investment is needed. 


8th Liverpool

This has to be the worst performance of any team in the league. With all the hype, the heavy investment and what was actually a decent end to last season, it appeared that Liverpool were about to challenge the big boys again. Oh, how wrong those people were. The signings made last summer were simply wrong, for quality and especially cost. Dalglish and Comolli got it all wrong and one has paid for his job already. 


Performances on the pitch have at times being good, yet it is a results game and the results at Liverpool have just not being good enough. Six wins at home all season, fourteen in total, is not showing signs of improvement. The woodwork has been blamed yet what the problem is that the players have not been good enough. The ever changing formations and styles in order to bring about results have produced just confusion and fourteen losses is a long way from Rafa’s two when Liverpool finished second. That season there was Torres, Alonso and Mascherano and a fit Gerrard. The team now is simply not good enough, Gerrard is past his best and his influence on the side should be reduced. Of the one class player in the side in Suarez he has not been used to his best and the way the club handled the Evra affair was utterly shambolic and Ian Cotton has paid the price for the club handled this situation. 


It would appear that John Henry is wielding the axe on those deemed responsible for a dreadful season. The main culprit must be Dalglish. He is in charge of ultimately who comes in to the club and is key in what happens on the pitch. His attitude, media handling and clear stress has had a negative impact on the club. He has not brought out the best in any of his players and if Liverpool do wish to progress further and have them challenging for more than the League Cup, then he must go. With a new kit sponsor and more investment to come, Henry needs to bring a man in who can take the club forward and who he can trust to invest his money to make Liverpool better. Don't be surprised to see someone like Maritnez. whose style and impressive performances of late seem to have earned him a chance at a club in the upper echelons of the league. For John Henry though, another year of this cannot be accepted. 

9th Fulham


With the departure of Mark Hughes last summer citing lack of ambition and investment for his reason for leaving, Fulham appeared in a difficult position. The performance of Hodgson had made Fulham into a mid table side and yet Hughes felt he could not take them further. A new man was required, and Al Fayed decided that the old Spurs boss Martin Jol was the answer. It appeared a difficult period at the start for Fulham, 12 points in 13 games  had Fulham 15th and a relegation battle seemed a likely outcome. Exit in the Europa League, of which such drama and joy had come previously was not received well either. Added to this ongoing issues with Zamora and Jol was not looking like the best choice. 


However, since the turn of the year Fulham have picked up 32 points and have impressed with their style, the 5-2 defeat of Newcastle was a notably impressive performance. The key to the season has been the performances and goals of Clint Dempsey; 17 goals in the league has been his best return and he clearly enjoys the free role behind the striker that Jol has afforded him. The problem for Fulham will be keeping hold of a player who at 29, would be looking to finish his career with Champions League football. Arsenal would be a great destination for the American and I am sure Fulham will not be able to keep hold of him for next year. This is also the case with Moussa Dembele, whose performances this season have seen him linked to United. Just as Martin Jol has brought the club and players round to his way, it may be that he needs to rebuild this summer, will Al Fayed give him the cash in order to maintain this position?

10th WBA


When Di Matteo was sacked as manager of West Brom it seemed slightly harsh, although on a bad run, fans argued he deserved his chance to keep Albion in the league. However, in retrospect, the decision worked out for both. Di Matteo is about to manage Chelsea in a Champions League final, and West Brom have finished above Villa for the first time in 33 years. Bringing in Roy Hodgson was a excellent choice as his time at Fulham shown, he is very good at working with average players as he gets them organised and solid. It worked at keeping Albion up and his signing of Shane Long showed ambition from the club. His decision to go to England is understandable, yet one wonders where West Brom will go from here. A side which seemed a serial yo yo club has now the look of a stable Premier League team, yet the next managerial appointment will be vital. Talk of Ranieri seems fantasy, yet Houghton seems possible. Don’t write off the return of Michael Appleton, a very well respected coach at Albion who has learnt his managerial trade at Portsmouth, if he can manage that circus, he can do anything surely? 

11th Swansea


My team of the season unquestionably. When Swansea won the play off final last season the verdict straight away was, doomed for relegation! Understandable based on the finances and history of the club. And also because their brand of football, which delighted fans in the Championship, was surely only going to cause problems in the Premier League? A 4-0 loss to City on the first game of the season appeared to show that the media was right, a lot of nice passing, yet in this league, they would be punished. However, Swansea have been a revelation this season, winning 12 games and accumulating 47 points has been remarkable for a club which trains at a local leisure centre. 


The key to the season has been their manager, who is a believer in the Spanish style of playing football and whose desire and ability to instil belief into his players has been a major factor in Swansea’ excellent season. Added to that the signings of Danny Graham from Watford, whose 10 goals has been an excellent return on his £3.5 million move last summer and perhaps most importantly was the acquisition of Michel Vorm, who was purchased for only £1.5 million from Utrecht and who has been magnificent for the Swans this campaign. A goal keeper and a goal scorer are vital components for any side, and in Graham and Vorm Swansea have found players who have aided their survivial push. 


The style will not change at Swansea and perhaps towards the end of the season there have been games where Swansea have been found out as such, next season may prove to be trickier as sides adapt well to a new side in the second year. It may also be difficult to keep hold of some of the players and especially their manager, whose stock has risen steeply this season, do not be surprised to see changes occurring this summer at Swansea and relegation may be a possibility next year, yet for this year at least, all credit must go the whole club for their remarkable achievements.


12th Norwich


On Saturday 8th August 2009 Norwich had just lost 7-1 to Colchester at home in league 1. If you had told a fan then that Norwich would be in the Premier League in two seasons time you would probably made them laugh all day long. Yet, it goes to show that with the right man in charge, anything is possible. In Paul Lambert Norwich have uncovered a gem of a manager, his drive and desire are often hidden in interviews, yet his players and the results clearly indicate that this man has a special touch of bringing out the best in his players, a trait of all the best managers. 


With perhaps a more pragmatic style than Swansea Norwich have been excellent this campaign; led by the surprisingly excellent Grant Holt, who has rightly deserved calls for a England call up, and the impressive performances of Hoolahan and Howson in midfield, this side has proved the doubters wrong and shown that previous league experience is not the most important aspect to survival. Determination, loyalty and desire have contributed to Norwich’s superb campaign. The key now will be what happens when Lambert leaves, with suitors such as Villa keenly interested and talk even of Liverpool, it will be near impossible to keep this man for next season. Can Norwich maintain their form in his absence? It will be interesting and perhaps very difficult; Lee Clark would be a good bet to replace Lambert with his previous work at the club before leaving for Huddersfield. A great season for the fans, unclear times ahead.


13th Sunderland


It is safe to say that if Sunderland had not acted and removed Steve Bruce last November, then 13th would not be their final position. Since the end of last season Sunderland were in free fall, losing Bent and Gyan were massive in the downfall of Sunderland yet Bruce had to take much blame and although the signs were clear to see, Bruce was allowed to continue. It did not last long though and his immediate successor was brought in and immediately changed the clubs fortunes. O’Neill is good at that, he goes back the basics, makes things simple and builds up the confidence of his players. It showed in the results, in his first 10 games Sunderland gained 22 points. 


However, in the 14 games to finish the season they have only won twice and the worry for Sunderland and their fans must be that the honeymoon period is certainly over. O’Neill will demand heavy investment such as at Villa, and although relative success may occur, it may prove more damaging for Sunderland in the long term as O’Neill pays high wages to distinctly average players. It may also be difficult to keep a player of Sessegnon’s quality who has lit up the Stadium of Light at times this season. Perhaps a lot of money may be spent this summer, yet Sunderland fans should be slightly apprehensiveness about what the future holds. The key though has been that Sunderland have maintained their Premier League status, which under Bruce looked precarious at best. 



14th Stoke City

The fact that people believe Stoke finishing 14th is disappointing tells you of the impressive job that Tony Pulis has done at Stoke City. A team which is now considered an established Premier League side has perhaps not surpassed last season’s 13th place finish and FA Cup final, yet it has given the fans Europa League football and has seen sides like Valencia come to the Britannia. Pulis believes it is his sides best season and their form after games in Europe has been the reason for their lower position. With the purchases of Crouch and Palacios the intent of the manager and the board is clear; they want to keep improving and adding more quality to the side. With owner Peter Coates, chairman of Bet365 funding the side, then promising signs are ahead. With Pulis in charge, his pragmatic ways have galvanised the city of Stoke and the fans are some of the most vocal and passionate in the country. In three years Stoke have established themselves remarkably well, this summer will be interesting however, as the side clearly needs to improve, as players like Upson and Woodgate have shown their age and deficiencies throughout. Carlos Cuellar is available, and may fit the bill of tall, imposing defender which Pulis loves. Yet more guile and creative influence in midfield may be needed to push Stoke on.

15th Wigan

The story of the last 10 games has been Wigan. Written off by every pundit and fan before Christmas, and justifiably when on an eight game losing streak, somehow Martinez has pulled them out of the relegation zone once again. And this time in much more impressive fashion. Wins against Liverpool, United, Arsenal and Newcastle have been quite remarkable, and the fashion in which they have done it is the more impressive. Having a philosophy of playing football is admirable, whereas Stoke are direct, Wigan like to pass it the Spanish way. At the end of the day, what is the most important is results. And earlier on this season, this style was just not working. However, in some Quixotic way Martinez has stuck with his style and has overcome the odds and proved doubters wrong. Losing players like N’zogbia, Valencia, Palacios and Cattermole has apparently been the “reason” Wigan struggle so much in the early part of the season. This is slightly untrue, yet it shows that this current team is completely Martinez’s and that with these impressive performances, players like Moses and Maloney will be interesting other clubs around. Do not be surprised also if Ali Al Habsi departs to a bigger side, as he has really shown his class this season. 


All this being said, if Wigan do lose more players, then Martinez may decide that he has done all he can at this club. And I am sure there will be suitors in England and Spain who would have been mightily impressed by how Wigan played against the “top” sides. Expect Liverpool to be sniffing and also Valencia too. Great achievements in staying up, yet the future looks bleaker than many think and hope.  

16th Aston Villa

Villa must be very thankful that the “39th” game was not part of this season. Because one more game may have been relegation for this side. A painful end to the season, where the animosity of fans reached fever pitch, eventually Villa survived, yet only just. The board, of Lerner and Faulkner have much to answer for the rather ludicrous and obviously catastrophic appointment of Alex McLeish last summer. The fans played a part too though, complaining about every manager linked to the job, most notably Steve McLaren, who said what you like about his England career, has shown he is a very good manager of “good” players (Forest were a problem waiting to happen). Of all the managers to choose though they went for the relegated Birmingham one. Well, they are very lucky that their “gamble” did not lead to relegation and they have acted swiftly in removing McLeish, yet questions must remain about their decision making and knowledge of the club and fans. McLeish can blame injuries to key players, yet the truth is he has not brought out the best in any players and with a decent crop of young players coming through, they will need someone to push them on and play the kind of football they have been doing in the youth and reserve ranks.


Next season will be interesting, with the next appointment needed to be a good one; with names like Lambert and Martinez being bounded around. The fans need inspring, yet rest assured the future is that of austerity for Villa. Do not expect the money spent under O’Neill, where losses of £50m were reported. Lerner burnt his fingers on his quest for Champions League football, he won’t do the same again. Expect mid table mediocrity for the coming seasons. The fans need to expect that but what they want is to be entertained. This has been the worst thing about the season; some of the most negative and dull football in the league was played by Villa, and no wonder many neutrals dislike this side. A new man will need to win the fans over and the players inspired and motivated to play football which gets results and entertains. A tall order for a team under austerity measures?

17th QPR

In some ways many hoped that QPR would go down. What with Warnock’s constant moaning and clear inability in this League to Barton’s antics throughout, QPR were not an enjoyable side this season. And it seemed relegation was a shoe in when considering their fixtures in the run in. Mark Hughes was the man given the task of keeping them up and he appeared to be struggling severely early on, especially when his big signing Cisse seemed intent on espionage. However, the turning point came against Liverpool, who not totally unsurprisingly threw away a two goal lead and allowed QPR to snatch a 3-2 win. That was the turning point, and wins against Spurs and a late one against Stoke gave the fans real belief that survival was possible. By all accounts it was out of their hands on the last day, yet somehow were winning 2-1 at City in the 89th min, only to lose 3-2. Yet with Bolton unable to win, they were safe. 


It will be interesting to see what happens this summer; Fernandes has promised major investment and it may be that Hughes is given a war chest to improve the squad. And it certainly needs improving; too many Championship players are in this side and improvements in all areas is required. Dealing with Joey Barton was the best decision Newcastle made and so QPR must act the same and rid the club of this average and volatile member who like a cancer kills a team from within.

18th Bolton

Owen Coyle is regarded as an excellent young manager who plays good exciting football. Clearly these people have not seen Bolton play. Many excuses can be made for the failing of Bolton this year; injuries to Holden and Lee Chung-Yong affected the team this season as they were key to Bolton last year. Yet not replacing Sturridge and Elmander was a big failing, N’gog clearly not a suitable replacement and for £4million questions must be asked of Coyle. 


Many will blame the Muamba incident yet it may have been a positive, results temporarily improved for Bolton after that, yet if those who think Bolton went down because of it, are much mistaken. In the first 18 games, Bolton won four times and lost fourteen. They conceded 77 goals, the third worst in the league and so no surprise that they were the third worst side. The introduction of Bogdan was clearly a factor and although he looks the part, it is very risky giving a young keeper “experience” when your survival rests on it. Yet the defence in front did not help; Wheater, Knight, Ricketts, Robinson and Ream are not good enough for this league, as individuals they are poor and as a unit they are atrocious. 


Bolton are in heavy debt and relegation be a major blow to this side. They believed Coyle would propel them up the league playing great football, yet when training consists of 5 a side with clearly no work on organisation and shape, then expect relegation. Worrying times for this club now, clearly their better players like Mark Davies and Holden will be sought by others and it may be a while to we see them in the “Barclays Premier League” again.

19th Blackburn

A sad story of the ill’s of foreign ownership, of poor management and of the impact of fans. Blackburn Rovers have been simply embarrassing this season, from the owners to the players. Steve Kean apparently stabbed Allardyce in the back to the get the job, convincing the new owners that he could take the club to the heights of the Champions League. When names like Raul, Beckham and Ronaldinho were being touted you wondered if they were serious about the club or if they had not watched any football for 10 years?! As players like Phil Jones were being sold, Goodwillie and Dann were being brought in. It is safe to say the fans were not impressed. And performances showed as much. Some highlights included the defeats of Arsenal and United, yet generally the fans were not wrong. They knew the truth, that their club was being run by people who did not understand football and was being managed by a man who clearly was out of his depth. I cannot condone the actions of the fans however, their abuse of Kean was at times savage and uncalled for, yet how he managed to continue in the role was rather amazing; the toll it must have took on him psychologically must have been huge. 


The thing is though, Blackburn should not have been relegated, they have a good enough side to stay up, and with the right man they could have. Hoillet, Yakubu, Formica, Rochina and N’Zonzi are all good players, yet they lacked guidance and belief this season. Kean was often cut an isolated figure on the side, and it appeared that he was going to be the Captain who went down with the ship, admirable or foolish? Either way, he cannot continue next season surely? The owners, who credit to them have cleared the debts of the club, face a massive task of getting Blackburn back in. With many players to leave, it will need a new man to guide this young squad back, and will take the fans to support them too. With Kean there, this simply won’t happen.

20th Wolves

They say the table doesn’t lie and in Wolves case it doesn’t. In 25 games Mick McCarthy had accumulate 21 points, Wolves lied in 18th and there was much negativity coming from the fans about his capability as manager. Many argued that he should have left the summer before, only scraping survival through goal difference. Yet what did the fans realistically expect of this club? Relegation was always going to be a possibility for this club, and so for McCarthy to have kept them in the league for two seasons prior was an achievement to be celebrated, not vilified. 



McCarthy perhaps made two big errors in signing Roger Johnson and immediately making him captain, clearly causing issues with the rest of the squad and on his own performances, clearly not a very good defender. Signing Jamie O’Hara was also a mistake, the difference between a player on loan, proving to his “bigger” club that he can do it, and one who is now signed permanently, was clearly seen in how little O’Hara did this season. Yet with the old adage of be careful what you wish for, McCarthy was sacked after losing 5-1 at home to West Brom, which while a terrible performance, showed of being reactive by the board. No replacement was in the wings and two weeks of utter shambles in recruiting the new boss led to much laughter at the constant rejection of managers of the ilk of Curbishley and Bruce. 


Things hit rock bottom with the appointment of Terry Conor, McCarthy’s assistant, who although liked by the players, was not really the best man for a side struggling with confidence and needing serious work. The decision was shown to be complete disaster with only four points collected from the 13 remaining games, all draws. Wolves had shot themselves in the foot and what was once a proud side which actually competed, now looked like an empty vessel plummeting to the Championship. The board have a lot do next season, already surprising the fans and players with the appointment of a manger who managed to get Lukas Podolski’s Cologne relegated this season. With players like Jarvis, Fletcher and Doyle clearly showing being capable of performing in the Premier League, then expect tough times ahead for Wolves. The board must be held accountable for terrible decisions this season.

Agree? Disagree? Find me on Twitter @The_W_Address



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The Miracle Worker & the Future of Arsenal



On May 19th Arsenal will be watching the Champions League in both trepidation and envy; worried because their Champions League qualification may rest on Bayern winning and envious because they wonder when the next time Arsenal will be appearing in a Champions League final, or any final at all.


 It is quite remarkable that Arsenal are in any position to be challenging for a Champions League position this season. Last summer was one of the most traumatic of Wenger’s time at Arsenal, early results indicated as such and at that point Wenger had a real challenge on his hands; losses to Liverpool, United, Blackburn and Spurs meant Arsenal had 7 points from 7 games. For the first time, the fans were showing their discontent with the board and the manager, Arsenal looked in a perilous condition and hopes of getting near the top four were slim.

The amazing thing about Arsenal, of all the problems they encountered, is that they are lying in third with a game to go. They say judge a side at the end of the season, yet to think Arsenal would be where they are would have been seen as a crazy prediction. They have achieved it by managing to put together winning runs and have been lucky that teams like Liverpool and Chelsea have not been particularly potent in the league.

Since the loss to Milan at San Siro Arsenal have appeared a rejuvenated side, I guess it couldn’t have been any worse, the performance that night was disgraceful, yet their run in has seen them get back into contention for the Champions League. As always with Arsenal though, the past four games have shown Arsenal’s inability to cross the finish line with any belief and strength of will. And it is this lack of mental strength which I hold Wenger accountable.


Wenger - Master of deception?

When people talk of Arsene Wenger he is widely regarded as one of the world's best managers. He has been dubbed a "miracle worker" by former Arsenal vice-chairman David Dein and we are told he has “revolutionised” the Premier League. However in the last six years there has been a shortage of trophies and gradually poorer performances.

One cannot doubt that the absence of David Dein at Arsenal has had a great effect on the fortunes of Arsenal yet excuses are made in regards to the stadium, about how costs have had to be reduced. Yet looking past the excuses, questions must still be asked about the signings being made by Wenger and a change in his philosophy after the invincible season which set in motion where we are now.

It is a fallacy that Arsenal have not spent money, especially in the last five years. Why people think this is because the signings have beenaverage at best. Who has been a success? Sagna, Nasri, Vermalean? Apart from that the signings he has made have been nothing short of average. Granted wages are a stumbling block for many top players, yet to say Arsenal haven’t spent money is a lie. The truth is that since David Dein left the club, citing lack of funding and ability to compete with the top sides around, Arsenal have struggled to bring in players of the quality of Bergkamp, Overmars, Vieria, Petit and Henry.  

Arsenal’s business model has been to stay competitive in the league while investing in the infrastructure which will give them a strong future. In the past six years, while the Emirates is being paid off, Arsene Wenger has done something which perhaps no other manager could have. The key to Arsenal’s success has been a strong scouting system bringing in cheap, young foreign talent and having them perform on the pitch, then selling them on for a large profit margin. For those who don’t know of “Moneyball”, Liverpool, who have apparently attempted something of this model, should take note of Arsenal, who have done it effectively. 

Yet for a manager who has some of the best scouts around the world and who we are told is very patient to make the right decision to ensure the correct players comes in, the results are clear, the signings made by Wenger are not good enough, or put another way, fail to perform at Arsenal. When you see Newcastle find a defensive mid, creative mid and striker for under £20 million, one has to wonder what Arsenal’s scouts have been doing. For all you hear of the scouting network of Arsenal, there are players who have been missed, and cost was not the issue. Is it Judgement was, and questions must be asked of Wenger’s. 


Is there a problem in the way Wenger develops players?

Yet wasn't players like Ramsay, Reyes, Rosicky and Arshavin some of the best talents around? 
These are players who arrived at Arsenal who came with a great reputation and yet have failed. The key question to ask is, what are Arsenal doing with these players that restricts their performances? I believe it is solely down to Wenger.

The Walcott situation has led me to believe that perhaps Wenger isn't the man we as England fans want to develop our talent either. Walcott was a forward, yet has been playing right wing for six years. How is this helping his development? He is not a winger, through Wenger’s coaching his confidence has been knocked through the insistence of him playing wide. He doesn’t even play him on the left to allow him to naturally drift inside. It is madness. However good his stats have been this year, this is the product of six years under Wenger and Arsenal’s “philosophy”. Is this what we want Chamberlain to become? With Chamberlain showing so much promise am I the only one worried that it is Wenger who is in control of future?

It is of course no real surprise why the young players at Arsenal don’t fulfil their potential, or require the need to move on to improve. It is a reason why also Arsenal haven’t won anything for seven years. Again, it is down to Wenger and his ridiculous philosophy concerning players over 30 years old. When Arsenal lost players like Keown, Parlour, Kanu, Wiltord and in the summer of 2004 and then to lost Pires and Vieria the following year, followed by Sol Campbell, Ashley Cole and Henry the next, all the experience of winning trophies, all the mental toughness which allowed Arsenal to beat United mentally and physically for a period of years, was effectively taken out of the side.

Everything that was great about this Arsenal team was replaced by technically good players with weak mentalities. The experience and expertise that was key in aiding young stars was removed and replaced by more youth players, they had no-one to learn from and importantly no-one to lead the team during the tough times.

Ever since the team has been completely Wenger’s, without the defence that George Graham developed, the team has been unsuccessful. Is this a surprise? No, and this leads to questions about Wenger’s awful record at recruiting and developing top quality defenders. He was very fortunate to inherit one of the best defences in world football, a defence comparable with the great Italian teams. He built his success on this platform, yet as they started to leave his inadequacies in defensive coaching and management were, and still are evident. Replacing that defence with players like Cygan, Stepanovs, Djourou and and Squillaci was incomprehensible. A back four of Sagna, Koscielny, Vermaelan and Gibbs is not title winning, yet when one of these is out, the team falls apart. Will Steve Bould improve matters defensively, Arsenal fans should hope so.

Wenger’s mental issues

Player’s performances I believe are the result of the manager, those who say that when the player steps out on the pitch that the manager has no influence are wrong. A manager’s role is to have prepared, planned, motivated and inspired their players. You know a team who believes in their manager when you see them working as hard as they can; look at Barca under Pep, United under Ferguson and all of Mourinho’s teams. They inspire their players to perform, to work harder than the opposition, they motivate teams to win. Can this be said of Wenger? The media says he is like a guide to the players, giving them more choices and responsibilities, like an Uncle more than a stern Dad.  The result is evident, without discipline and true guidance this Arsenal team looks lost.

The Arsenal team assembled by Wenger has been average, lacking strength in mind and body, lacking leadership on the pitch and in the dressing room. The sides inability to last a whole season, more often than not capitulating at the end of the season shows Wenger’s poor judgement of players, and Wenger’s lack of ability to develop a winning side. Where are the players who have the will to win, an asset that Ferguson rates so highly?


What does the future hold?

The truth is, Arsenal should finish third and should qualify for the Champions League again. The biggest factor to this season has been the ability to keep Robin Van Persie fit, he has now played a whole season for the first time since his arrival, and his 30 league goals have propelled Arsenal up the table and have been vital in keeping the vultures away from Wenger. The question is, can they keep him? Can they convince him to stay, the only way they can do this is if they prove to him that he will be playing with better players and that Arsenal have a genuine chance of challenging for honours. In all honesty this is unlikely, and Van Persie may decide that while his stock is so high, he should look to do what Henry did and head to Spain.


Will the season be seen as successful or another one ending in failure? This answer to this question explains everything about Arsenal and their “situation”. You see, the thing is about Arsenal is that winning trophies seems to matter less than making money.


Arsene Wenger described the new stadium as the "biggest decision in Arsenal's history since the board opted to bring Herbert Chapman to the club in 1925." The stadium cost £400 million to build; amazingly was built on time and is regarded as one of the best stadiums in the world. For those fans who have grown frustrated and tired of Wenger’s management, they need to realise that while the stadium has been built, while the debts have been paid, the side they support have not once failed to qualify for the Champions League.


This is remarkable considering Arsenal have the lowest net spend in the entire league, lower than every side in the league today over the past five years. In that time Arsenal have spent £85 million and received £116 million, a net spend of -£31m. Compare this to the net spends of City (£418m), Chelsea (£155m), Liverpool (£83m), even Sunderland (£69) and Aston Villa (£68m) and it is clear that Arsenal, relative to their spending, should be on for relegation and not qualifying for the Champions League.

Like any fan of any side, they want to win things, they want to compete with the best. They see the money spent by City, the players coming in and envy is a natural reaction. However, Arsenal do not have that money and instead they have decided to go down the route of sustainable growth. A noble and moral path, yet one which seems stubborn and selfish to the fans and to the players. 


A Russian future?


Yet, there is a Russian, Alisher Usmanov, who is by some reckonings Britain's richest man and who owns almost 30% of Arsenal. He has made his intentions to buy Arsenal very clear, yet the board chose the American Stan Kroenke last year. Yet Kroenke has not made the promises of investment that Usmanov has made and it seems that if Arsenal wish to compete then surely allowing Usmanov to take over the club will be a positive decision.

Looking across to Stamford Bridge, the investment from Abramovich has resulted in success, although of course it has also resulted in instability and debt. The thing is, Arsenal have everything in place to welcome a billionaire; a world class stadium and a balanced cheque book. Usmanov has in the past suggested a rights issue to generate cash for Wenger to spend on improving the squad while influential fans group Arsenal Supporters’ Trust recently balloted their members with 70 per cent keen to see him on the board.


The problem is, Usmanov will never have full ownership of the club, not while Peter Hill-Wood is there. Hill-Wood cites Usmanov’s activities, yet the main reason is that Usmanov bought David Dein’s shares when he left Arsenal, for Dein, this was the man to take Arsenal forward. Unfortunately for Arsenal, Dein and Hill-Wood don’t get along and so the investment from the Russian will not be forthcoming. What does this mean for Arsenal? It means that they will still not be able to compete for the best players, they will not be able to pay the best wages and so will still be in a state of competitiveness without silverware.

In terms of infrastructure, Arsenal are ahead of Liverpool, Chelsea and Spurs, while those clubs see the necessity of a new world class stadium, Arsenal already have it. They have done it also while staying competitive and a lot of credit must go to the board and Wenger for such a remarkable job. Yet the question is, when the money becomes available, is Wenger the one to trust to spend it? It is convenient to blame lack of investment on the stadium, yet there is a Russian willing to pump hundreds of millions into the side, to make it competitive for trophies, is there a fear that if they try and don’t achieve anything, would this shown Wenger’s failings?


The main question is, does Wenger’s interest lie with the team or the club, trophies or business? He is very involved in every aspect of how Arsenal are run, which is remarkable in some respects, yet you wonder if he should be focusing on one or the other. If his interest is in the business model, in the sustainability of the club, then he should pass on his coaching responsibilities of the team to a man who can invest all his time and efforts into what happens on the pitch.

All in all, Wenger has done an amazing job at Arsenal in the past six years, considering the lack of investment compared to those around them Arsenal have maintained top four finishes throughout. Perhaps 
Arsenal have been fortunate that rivals Liverpool and Chelsea have been so poor this year. However the players at Arsenal will not stay around forerver, if Arsenal cannot give these players silverware, then like others before, they will leave. If Arsenal are to push on in the coming seasons, then I do not believe that Wenger is the man to do that. He has created a world class club in terms of business, now it is time he allowed someone else to make a world class team on the pitch.


Follow The Whitehouse Address on Twitter @The_W_Address


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Barça have 'controlled' to Van Persie

The top scorer in the Premier out of contract in 2013.

If the option is not viable Llorente, both sporting and economically, FC Barcelona is working in parallel in any other form of elite: the Dutchman Robin van Persie, the top scorer in the Premier League.

Wenger's pupil, who joined the London team in the 2004-2005 season, has the same profile as Llorente, as it is not a striker born. In fact, both in the Netherlands (played three years in the Feneyoord) in its selection, as for many seasons at Arsenal, has played down the right to wrong foot, being left handed.

He has been in recent years when their coach has been used more as nine, yes, with total freedom of movement. About to turn 29 years old (in August), out of contract in June 2013, making it one of the most desired players from across Europe. Arsenal will have no choice but to listen to offers for him if he will not run out of anything within a year. And this fact makes their transfer price is affordable for big clubs in Europe.

Van Persie has refused to renew yet, knowing that he has the upper hand and the possibility of signing the last big contract of his life with a computer can aspire to win titles, something that has not been done in the 'Emirates '.

Van Persie really like the technical secretariat of FC Barcelona for its versatility, high technical level, speed and experience. His friendship with Cesc Fàbregas could bring him to the Camp Nou this option if it wins the whole of Llorente.

Barca fichará a central defender. It is one of the priorities of the technical squad. And the steps to hire long ago they occurred. Thiago Silva, as in all the signings, has been probed by FC Barcelona and the Brazilian player has given his approval to the operation. Want to come to Camp Nou.

It is very probable that Milan put a thousand fault for not getting rid of one of the few young players you have in your template. In favor of Barça play the Lombard entity still has to pay a share of the signing of Ibrahimovic, which could bring down significantly the recruitment of young central defender.

In the offices of the club azulgrana are designing the strategy for the immediate future, given the age of two power holders at the moment, Puyol and Mascherano. Thiago Silva is considered the most promising center of Europe at the moment. Their representatives are familiar with the interest of Barça. (via SPORT)

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Torres and Van Persie dreams of Barça

Cracks like Torres or Van Persie happy to come azulgrana equipment.
With Pep or with Tito, the hook is now the Camp Nou is unmatched.


Barça is coming a new, as yet different. Pep Guardiola will leave the team with worldwide prestige that goes far beyond its 13 degrees and is about to take over his close collaborator Tito Vilanova. This year will not fall or la Liga or the Champions League, but this team captivates like no other in the world. And that power of attraction also affects top-level professionals, such as Fernando Torres and Robin van Persie. Any of them would be happy to wear at the azulgrana in the football project with more punch in the world. And Barça knows it.

In the situation of the Dutch forward has been reporting MD. Arsenal captain, top scorer in the Premier League, has for months without renewing a contract that takes away just one year of operation. That makes it a market opportunity. Friend of Cesc Fabregas, we would be happy to return to play with him and that Barça move tab.

The forward of Chelsea, who beat Barça in the Champions League, also has friends in the Camp Nou. And the way he spoke of Barça seconds after deleting it confirms what level is the degree of admiration culé.

Wenger brings Podolski and he assimilates his escape

According to the initial plan, the lead is not, today, to reinforce the priority line for the club, but the market sometimes gets in the window a great opportunity that would be foolish not to value. Robin van Persie is in a contractual situation so special that it almost becomes a bargain. The top scorer in the Premier League with 28 goals out of contract with Arsenal in 2013, so that is about to enter its final season. The club 'gunner' has failed in its attempts to extend the contract for Van Persie, who now gives long under the guise of the Euro. If Arsenal do not want to see how Van Persie free will in a few months, the opportunity to profit is to pass it this summer, with the handicap that he could not do it the way 'gunner', ie, asking for a morterada. Coach, Arsène Wenger, has already hedged its bets. Yesterday Cologne Arsenal accepted wholesale from Lukas Podolski, a former Bayern forward, for about 13 million euros. Van Persie can not ask for much more.

No one spoke so well of a Barça played

Fernando Torres is recovering a goal and enthusiasm to play the Euro due to its season finale, endorsed with his latest hat trick. This whole course and a crack appeared in disgrace. After his high level in Liverpool, in January 2011 put Chelsea 58 million euros to sign him until 2016. But be that for whatever reason, did not fit. Now, many times from the bench, is giving and scoring goals that have helped Chelsea to be in the Champions League final. Achieved while Barça settled in the European tournament and still at the Camp Nou, released this: "Barça is ahead of all but the best does not always win." No one spoke so well of a new rival eliminated. Further proof that, if for him, would love to play with friends, some of them as intimate as Iniesta. Athletic heart 'El Niño' never go to Real Madrid, but Barça. Recently, he had sold to Chelsea for 20 million euros. If Barça make a gesture, 'El Niño' help. (via MD)

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Wenger: "If anyone understands feeling the pressure Guardiola that's me"

Arsenal coach Arsene Wenger said he was "surprised" Pep Guardiola's decision to leave the bench of FC Barcelona.

"For me it is a surprise to see Guardiola left Barcelona. May not be the best time to take such an important decision, just one week after living with so many disappointments," Wenger said in a statement included in the team's website in London.

Alsatian coach also believes that "the philosophy of Barcelona has to be bigger than winning or losing a championship." "Guardiola is one of the representatives of this philosophy and the person who did it succeed," said Wenger. The coach of the "gunners" also explained that he had "loved to see this philosophy insisting Guardiola on the bench for Barcelona after a disappointing year," which would be "interesting."

The Catalan coach, who left Barcelona after four years full of successes and triumphs that won 13 titles, will take a year out of football, a decision that Wenger "understands". "Believe me, if anyone understands feeling the pressure Guardiola that's me," said French. "I can understand that there are some coaches who take career breaks," he said. "From the outside you can not really see what a man suffers. Perhaps he has not shown much stress, but it sure has felt. I understand that you take some time to rest and reflect," said Wenger.

The French coach who joined Arsenal in 1996, said he decided to do "the opposite of Guardiola," not taking any rest in his long career. "The work ends up being your life, but I understand why some people have to rest from time to time," the Alsatian. (via SPORT)

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Van Persie visited Barça in their hotel!

The issue of FC Barcelona was the Monday night visit from one of the great cracks in the Premier: The forward of Arsenal Robin Van Persie.

The Dutch striker went to the JW Marriot hotel in London is hosting the Barça squad shortly after completion in game the Gunners played-and lost-to Wigan by 1-2.

The meeting went beyond the British press, which have been published including photographs of the visit and Van Persie out of the hotel.

Apparently, the Arsenal striker went there to greet his old friends: 'Ibi' Afellay, Dutch team-mate and Cesc Fabregas, who shared equipment in the Gunners.

The event, in any case, has set off alarm bells among fans of London side, fearful that his star to sign for Barça in the future.

Van Persie out of contract in June 2013, when they could no cost to sign for any club, and to renew negotiations have not borne fruit yet. Real Madrid and Manchester City would be among the teams that would like their breakthrough this summer. (via SPORT)

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The Truth About Moneyball


With all this talk of Moneyball, do people realise it has been happening in football for years? And to good effect?



In the aftermath of Damien Comolli’s departure last week, many articles and fans have discussed the failed project this season, which appeared to stem from the book Moneyball by Michael Lewis about the Oakland A’s, an American baseball team, and their visionary general manager Billy Beane.

New Liverpool owner John Henry believed he had a secret, something no-one else knew of, which was thought up by Billy Beane over in Oakland, over a decade ago. To understand what Liverpool have tried to accomplish, you need to understand what Oakland did.


The A’s were playing a different game than everyone else.

The Oakland A’s had been consistently so much more efficient than anyone else that they appeared to be in a different business. They won games by buying in the qualities in a baseball player that the market undervalues, and they sold the oned the market overvalues. Often because of the superficial judgement of how a player looks, his physical appearance for instance, would often mean a player being undervalued by the market.

The Oakland A’s had a strategy centrered around financial control. Most teams were spending too much money. The key for them was being successful on a tight budget. The key to Billy Beane success was that he sought to win games cheaply.

Beane firstly dismissed the views of his scouts. Why? Because Beane believed they were wrong in their judgements. He rendered decades of scouting experience meaningless; they were judging players on their own subjective opinions; Beane viewed this as ridiculous, he felt they were choosing the wrong players, because they weren’t basing their judgements on the players performance, instead it was more about how he looked or how he moved.

Beane’s vision entailed the use of performance scouting, which directly contradicted the baseball man’s view that a young player is what you can see him doing in your mind’s eye. It argues that most of what’s important about a baseball player, maybe even his personality can be found in his statistics. Billy Beane intended to rip away from the scouts the power to decide who would be a pro baseball player and who would not. A new insight into statistics would be his weapon for doing it. He believed that by analysing baseball statistics you could see through a lot of baseball nonsense. This was revolutionary. And it worked.

John Henry, the new owner of the Boston Red Sox and now owner of Liverpool had a great understanding of markets and their inefficiencies and he believed that Beane’s methods were the way forward, efficiency without spending a lot, a sustainable model of success. He wanted to overhaul his new franchises in the image of the Oakland A’s.

John Henry’s new Anfield model

Many people have used the phrase “moneyball” to explain the transfer policy at Anfield since the Fenway Sports Group came in to the club.  


By looking at their signings it would show that did try to attempt Oakland's "Performance scouting", to scout players objectively, through their statistics.The signings made by Liverpool last season indicated that statistical analysis was the key for the purchases of Suarez, Enrique, Carroll, Henderson, Downing and Adam. 

In an interview with France Football last year Comolli said of Luis Suárez: "We turn enormously toward players who don't get injured. We also took into account the number of assists, his performances against the big teams, against the smaller clubs, in the European Cup and the difference between goals scored at home and away." José Enrique was signed aftrer his  statistical figures were far more impressive than Liverpool's scouting report suggested.

Henderson and Downing created the most chances for their respective clubs the year before, and this would have been a major factor in their acquisitions. Charlie Adam’s set pieces were considered to be worth “£10 million on their own” according to Alex Ferguson after United played Blackpool. And so what Liverpool had done was bring together a group of players who had created a lot of chances from different positions on the pitch, who had a high percentage of entries into the final third, a perfect mix for strikers like Carroll and Suarez.

And yet, Liverpool failed in their approach, because they didn't get the value in the market with which Beane was so famous for. The extreme money spent on players at Anfield in the past 18 months has been staggering, and this is why Comolli has left. He took a concept and misunderstood it, he looked at the stats, sure, yet the point is to see worth in a player whose value doesn't indicate it. £20 million each for Downing and Henderson and £35 million for Carroll is not really "value for money". Regardless of their statistics. 

The French version of Billy Beane

And yet, have there been other sides in football who have used the the "Moneyball" system to good effect. Indeed there has. And it these sides which deserve a closer look.


Since 2006 the side who has the lowest net spend in the Premier League may shock you, or perhaps not. It has been Arsenal. They have spent £85 million and recouped £116 million, with a net of minus £31million. This is remarkable considering their league position has never had them finish below fourth. 

Damien Comolli worked with Wenger from 1996 and found a number of talents for Wenger. Wenger gave Comolli a lesson in scouting, in performance analysis. Wenger was doing what Billy Beane was doing it over in Oakland. He was brining in players for cheap and with little market value and finding they had talents. Wenger’s impressive scouting network unearthed some real talent, which contributed to performances on the pitch and more importantly for a side wishing to achieve sustainable growth, has improved the finances of the club, especially when a new £500 million stadium has restricted the growth of the squad in the short term, yet allowed it be stronger and sustainable in the longer term.

The profit margin on some of their players is remarkable. Arsenal realised they couldn’t spend on both the team and the stadium and so had to be very astute with their signings and importantly with their ability to sell big to other teams. Kolo Toure, Adebayor, Nasri and Clichy,  players who cost Arsenal £150k, £7m, £10m and 250k have recopued Arsenal over £80 million.

Add to this Cesc who cost nothing and was sold to Barcelona for £24 million, then the model that Arsenal has produced is the most impressive in the league. The top scorer in the league this season cost Arsenal £2.75 million. He has scored 93 goals for Arsenal in 189 games, what a return for the money spent.

Arsenal realise they cannot compete with the money spent by City and Chelsea (£500 and £250m in the past six years), what they needed to do was find a solution to this in order to keep being competitive . Arsenal's scouting network is so good because it has to be, they need to keep finding talents who will cost little, who will improve the side and who can be sold on for more. This is sustainable growth. Wenger has done such a remarkable job producing a competitive Arsenal with spending literally no money. Oakland were the same, they could not compete with sides like the Yankees, and so the players who cost the big money were not feasible. This is why they began looking to players who were not valued by the big sides. 


When you talk about Moneyball, when you consider what Billy Beane did to baseball, Wenger has done the same thing for the English Premier League. He has brought in players for little money, achieved relative success on the pitch, and more often than not, got a lot of money by selling them on for more. When John Henry considers a side who he wishes to resemble, Arsenal may just be that side.


The Toffees, continually exceeding expectations

In fact, there are other sides around England and Europe who deserve a closer look to see how they resemble Billy Beane’s Oakland A’s.

When you talk about Moneyball the key is buying players who other teams don’t consider good enough or worth the risk to play in the top levels. It is about buying cheap players who can offer more than their value shows. Everton are an excellent example of this.

David Moyes has been at Everton since 2002 and in his time he was built a stable Premier League side with almost no money. Remarkably Everton in the past five years have not finished below 8th, many will not be surprised as many consider Everton to be a top half side. Yet, they have only spent £111 million on players since 2004. And in that time they have recouped £100 million. This means that they have a net spend of only £10 million in eight seasons.


This is impressive considering Liverpool rank 3rd with £83 net spend, Tottenham 4th with £73m net spent and of sides considered equal with Everton; Aston Villa, £68m net and Sunderland, £62m net. Even Bolton, Fulham, Stoke, Wolves, QPR and West Brom have all had a higher net spend than Everton since 2006. And yet, Everton have finished most of these sides for the past several years.

What has been their secret? Everton have scouted players from the lower leagues such as Cahill, Lescott and Jagielka and have found players capable of performing in the Premier League. These were players that many clubs were believed to be interested in, yet the belief that they “couldn't do it in the top flight” was a reason for their reluctance to purchase them. 


Since 2004 these are some players who have been bought in to Goodison; Tim Cahill (£1.5m), Joleon Lescott (£5m), Phil Neville (£3.5m), Mikel Arteta (£2m, Tim Howard (£3m), Phil Jagielka (£4m), Leighton Baines (£6m), Steven Pienaar (£2m), Louis Saha (Free), Sylvain Distin (£4m), Jermaine Beckford (Free), Magaye Guaye (£1m),  Apostolos Vellios (£250k),  Seamus Coleman (£150k), Darren Gibson (£2m), Nikica Jelavic (£6m). 


This is an impressive array of talent considering the money spent and shows how a Premier League side can be competitive with a tight budget. Their academy also has brought through players like Rooney, Hibbert, Osman and Barkley.

They have sought to tap into a market which was not been utilised by teams around them, they spent less and earned more from those players, on the pitch and off it too. Everton should be proud of their accomplishments and those calls for Moyes to be manager of the year each season are correct in what they say. He has done a remarkable job.


Moneyball aims to bring in players with talent who other sides don’t know about or perhaps don’t want to take a risk on. Everton have shown that taking the risks works, especially with the right manager and environment. And Billy Beane was also keen to stress that players bought cheap can benefit the finances too, Everton have shown this in their sales of Rooney (£27m), Lescott (£22m), Arteta (£10m) and Beckford (£4m).


A new change in team's approach?

Looking at some other sides, it would appear that this Moneyball mentality is spreading and bearing fruit. Newcastle have been a great example in the past two years of buying players for cheap value and achieving great results. Their new transfer policy has acquired players from around Europe who can offer more than their value represents. Cabaye (£3.5m), Tiote (£4.5m), Ben Arfa (£2.5m), Ba £0) and new signing Papiss Cisse (£10m) have all been remarkable signings for Newcastle. And I am sure that they will make a hefty profit on these players when the decide to sell them on. 

These aren’t unknown players who are hidden, but those who certain teams don’t want to risk buying. Newcastle are proving that good scouting can produce good results for less money. With the right manager at the helm they have exceeded expectations and have a realisitic chance of achieving Champions League football this season.

Newly promoted Norwich are an excellent example of sustainability and great management too. Two seasons ago they were in League 1, now they sit tenth in the Premier League. What has been their formula for success? The key has been their manager; his drive, determination and ability to get the most from players. And also his ability to buy cheap players who exceed their value. Anthony Pilkington, Steve Morrison, Bradley Johnson, Jonathon Howson and Wesley Hoolahan are players who had no previous Premier League experience. Their total value is around £10 million. And yet performances would show that they can handle the speed and pressures of the top flight. 


It shows that there is talent out there, it resides in the lower leagues and abroad and sometimes it may take a manager with a restricted budget or with a little nous to take a risk on some players there. Take Grant Holt, he has been a revelation since signing from Shrewsbury Town. He was signed for only £400k in 2009 and in his Norwich career he has played 113 games and scored 58 goals.  


Holt is the perfect example of the Moneyball philosophy. He is regarded in the media as being overweight, a drinker and someone who doesn't fit in the Premier League. It is as if people haven’t watched him play. He has scored 13 goals in the Premier League this season, after Rooney he is the top English marksman.

Holt’s biggest problem is his age. At 31 he has little upside left in his career, perhaps his arrival in the Premier League has come several years too late, it is a shame, because he really does look suited to this league and imagine if someone had taken a chance on him years ago, perhaps he could have been an England regular. The lesson from Holt is for sides to not make judgements on players, how many other Holt type forwards are in the lower leagues, is Rickie Lambert, Jordan Rhodes or Ged Evans, players capable of making the step up, I would say definitely.


A German model of Moneyball

In Europe there has been no team better at creating success with little money than Borussia Dortmund. This is a side who ten years were close to bankruptcy due to over spending, they had gone beyond their means and looked a shadow of their side they were in the late 90’s. Dortmund have become sustainable and they have been successful. What have they done to accomplish this?

Firstly, they decided that the key was to bring the right man to lead the side, they decided Jurgen Klopp was the right choice. And right they were. Klopp decided that if he had no money to spend then he had to use what he had. The key was youth. Klopp believed in developing youth players and saw the value in bringing through academy players and buying cheap players who perhaps were not valued as much as they should. Sound familiar?


On top of youth development the key for Dortmund has been their impressive use of scouting. The Dortmund scouting team work very closely with the management, they use a scouting system called Scout7 which gives information on players from all over the world. Dortmund have specific attributes for each position of which they look for, which they then search for a match on Scout7.

Effectively, they are looking for a player who fits their criteria who perhaps hasn’t been found on other top teams radar. Players like Kevin Großkreutz, Neven Subotic and Mats Hummels have all been picked up for small amounts yet have made massive contributions to the revivial of Dortmund and their success in the past couple of seasons. One of their most impressive “finds” has been Shinji Kagawa, he was found in the J-league 2nd division, and was bought for just £300,000.

Dortmund, Arsenal, Everton and Norwich have shown the merits of the football version of Moneyball, specific scouting using players statistics and attributes in order to find a player whose ability does not match his value. These sides have taught other sides how to use the market effectively, that spending millions is not always the answer, they have proven that success can had through sustainability.

A new future of sustainability


Billy Beane changed the lives of ballplayers whose hidden virtues otherwise might never have been seen. The money splashed around by teams like Man City, Chelsea, PSG and Real Madrid the game looks unsustainable and unbalanced. What the game needs is more Wenger’s, Moyes’, Klopp’s and Lambert’s, men with the willingness to take a risk, to believe in a player who others don’t and to prove those others wrong. 


Why did Damien Commoli fail? Because he didn’t do what Oakland did. Instead he brought in players for obscene amounts, this was not the model John Henry wanted implemented. If those players were too expensive, then Liverpool should have sought to find players who had similar stats and attributes yet who could did not have the same value as those they bought. Perhaps it would have given Liverpool the same results, or even better. It would have definitely being more cost effective. The problem with buying English players from the Premier League is that their value is too high compared to their actual worth. It has been a harsh lesson learnt by Liverpool’s owners.

What can Moneyball teach us? It is no surprise to me that the reluctance to open up to new ideas has held back the English game. The majority of coaches and scouts in the pro game posess an “old school thinking” philosophy which doesn’t consider how the modern game is and what is required. They holds onto an ideal of the past. The truth is, the game changes, styles change and ideas evolve and in order to achieve success ideas need to be ahead of the game.

Billy Beane gave a new approach to baseball and revolutionised the sport. It gave the seemingly accepted idea something new to think about. Are football coaches and teams willing to try new approaches to improve standards? Barcelona’s approach is revolutionary, Guardiola has been called a visionary for the work he has done; he obsesses over tactics and statistics and has put emphasis on possession and movement more than any team in last two decades at least. The game can be changed, what it needs is someone with vision, a will to convince and the ability to implement.



I appreciate any feedback you have and you can get me on Twitter at @The_W_Address


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